News analysis: More than one way to HSDPA

Vaughan O'Grady, Editor

This article first appeared in the Informa Telecoms & Media publication 3GSM World Focus Online (Issue 17, October 4, 2005). Click for more information on this publication or sign up for a free subscription.

Third generation technology has yet to make any major headway in Latin America but, with the giant US market nearby, could that change? CDMA2000 has already stolen a march on 3GSM in both territories but Chris Pearson, president, 3G Americas, believes, not surprisingly, that, in what is a genuine multi-technology environment, GSM's evolutionary roadmap has many advantages over CDMA2000.

He cites the usual advantages that its proponents see for the GSM family of technologies: roaming, economies of scale and the future-proofing that such a commitment brings with it for those considering 3G migration paths. However, he also cites spectral capacity and data throughput and the advantages to business of multiple manufacturers and diverse options for infrastructure, handsets and applications.

However, it remains the staggering numbers that tend to carry the argument. As he says: "The GSM family of technologies adds more customers in one year than the total customer base of any other mobile wireless technology," adding: "According to Informa Telecoms and Media, as of August 2005 there are 1.5 billion subscribers worldwide; 158 million of those subscribers are from North, Central and South America."

Having established GSM's advantages, it is also clear that, if US operator Cingular goes for HSDPA, it would be a major coup for the technology in the region. And would other GSM operators follow the North American example? "I expect most operators in North America to plan their networks and devices to have EDGE co-exist with UMTS/HSDPA in the future. I think many operators will follow the Cingular approach in the United States and offer an integrated approach with UMTS/HSDPA in the top tier markets and EDGE in the rural and regional areas," he suggests.

However, that need not necessarily apply to Latin America. Both regions employ EDGE, of course. However, echoing a point made in our overview about operator revenue, he points out: "In Latin America EDGE provides a cost-efficient robust wireless data solution for a market that traditionally has not had a high ARPU rate".

In fact, Pearson suggests, in some countries in Latin America, operators will utilize EDGE as a standalone 3G technology for a few more years before they deploy UMTS/HSDPA. "There are trials in Latin America with UMTS, but the mass market is not yet demanding higher 3G speeds," he admits. "However, we expect most all GSM operators to someday deploy UMTS/HSDPA as long as they have the spectrum and financial capabilities matched by market demand." A little way off, perhaps, but when it happens similarities of terrain will probably mean that the likely North American approach of using WCDMA/HSDPA in major cities and EDGE in outlying rural and regional areas will be even more relevant to Latin America.

For now, however, when you think next generation in the Americas, think EDGE - the figures positively insist on it. Currently, EDGE is deployed by 32 operators in 16 countries in the Western Hemisphere with an additional 38 operators committed to deploy it. Pearson underlines this point. "In the Americas, most governments have not auctioned off new 3G spectrum and thus EDGE provides a sweet spot to operators and their customers providing throughput speed, devices and applications," he says.